Weekly21. August 2026
"U.S. Credit Is Easy, but Risks Are Growing"
US stocks rallied on Wednesday to snap a three-day losing streak, fueled by a sharp fall in bond yields after the US Treasury Department announced an increase in long-term bond buybacks. "Dr. Erfaun Norooz Weekly" is a report offering expert insights into cryptocurrency and global financial markets.
Erfaun Norooz
The accompanying drop in the US dollar ignited the crypto market—pushing Bitcoin back above $75,000—and drove heavy demand for precious metals. Gold broke past $4,500 to hit a new record high, while silver surged nearly 6%, as I pointed out last week.
Even though inflation is still high, interest rates are expensive, and everyday living costs have increased, it is still relatively easy for companies and investors in the U.S. to borrow money. High stock prices and low extra borrowing costs for businesses are helping keep credit available.
Historically, very easy access to credit can encourage people and companies to take bigger risks. This can push asset prices too high and eventually create market bubbles. U.S. banks are much stronger than they were before the 2008 financial crisis, but the current situation is still something investors should watch carefully.
#The U.S. Job Market Is Getting Weaker
The U.S. labor market may not be as strong as the headline unemployment numbers suggest.
The number of people working full-time has fallen by more than two million since early 2025. Full-time employment is now only slightly higher than it was before the pandemic.
This suggests that the labor market may be weakening even though the overall unemployment rate still looks relatively stable.
# The Bond Market Is Not Expecting Easy Rate Cuts
The bond market is sending an important warning.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been using more short-term government borrowing, with the idea that the government can refinance this debt later if interest rates fall.
However, investors are demanding relatively high interest rates to hold U.S. government bonds. The yield on 30-year Treasury bonds recently reached roughly **5.22%–5.26%**, the highest level since 2001. Ten-year Treasury yields are also still high.
This suggests that investors are not convinced that long-term interest rates will fall quickly.
# Important Economic Events Coming Up
Several major economic developments will be important to watch:
# Gold Could Face Strong Resistance
Gold has recently risen strongly, but major banks believe it could have difficulty moving much higher.
The biggest risk is that geopolitical problems could disrupt energy supplies. If that happens, energy prices could rise and push inflation higher again.
Higher inflation could force central banks to keep interest rates high for longer. That could limit the potential for gold to rise further.
Important gold levels are:
- **First support:** $4,400
- **Second support:** $4,000
- **Major resistance:** $4,800–$4,900
In simple terms, gold may continue rising, but it could struggle to break through the $4,800–$4,900 area.
#Overall Market Outlook
The U.S. economy is showing several warning signs at the same time.
Long-term interest rates are high, full-time employment is weakening, foreclosures are increasing, and borrowing remains relatively easy. At the same time, stock markets are still performing strongly.
This does **not necessarily mean that another 2008-style financial crisis is coming** soon. However, the combination of these factors suggests that the economy may be becoming more fragile.
For investors, the main message is simple: **don't assume that strong stock prices mean the economy is completely healthy.** It is important to watch employment, housing, interest rates, geopolitical risks, credit conditions, energy price and inflation closely and to manage investment risk carefully.
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Dr. Erfaun Norooz is a crypto and financial market analyst specializing in macro finance and alternative investments. Based in Vienna, Austria, he is an academic, finance strategist, and international consultant. His expertise spans cryptocurrencies, macroeconomics, international law, and emerging digital assets. He regularly shares market insights through research, media appearances, and public speaking.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this report are solely those of Dr. Erfaun Norooz and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.
Veröffentlicht am 21.8.2026